Weather cycle

More evidence that the phenomenon known as global warming is just a load of tish and tosh. Even bunkum.

We are all experiencing a spell of very cold weather at the moment (January 2010). Need less to say the media are making a meal out of it and making all sorts of comparisons. Much nonsense banded around.

This spell has created more perceived problems than previous cold spells. This is all caused by changes to the population and our habits. For example, there were just a few out of town shopping centres 20 odd years ago. And back in the early 1960’s we were by and large a manufacturing economy. People walked and cycled to work as they lived close by. Compare that to current commute most of us endure.

In short, all this reliance on the road network is all down to our changing demands. Also, as a very cold spell happens so infrequently, it makes no business sense for our services to be always prepared for all eventualities.

So onto a well proven weather cycle:

There is a cycle of about every 22 years of severe winters. These basically run as follows: 1870/71, 1894/95, 1916/17, 1939/40, 1962/63, 1984/85 and now 2010 may apply. All these winters were preceded (a warning if you like) and followed by some very cold individual months.

The 1939/40 cold spell was interesting from a historical context. As we had just declared war, the fact that the country was paralysed by cold weather was…..a national secret.

The weather cycle is dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity. Period of high geomagnetic activity, such as there is at present and there was in the early 1870s, can cause weather extremes. Both 1868 and 1870 produced droughts for example, followed by excessive storms and floods in 1872 when the Trent burst its banks. August and December in 1872 were particularly wet, with six and half inches of rain (three times the average) falling on Bingham in December that year.

My other thoughts on global warming are here:  www.smarty09.wordpress.com/2009/09/24/global-warming/

Global Warming

The word is global warming. We all nod in a knowing way, blinded by science. Some provocative thoughts though:

The planet is 4.5 billion years old. Our weather data covers just a tiny period. Basic weather data is only 200 odd years old. And the scientific detailed stuff is 30 – 40 years old. There isn’t a computer system in the world that is accurate 72 hours from now.

The UK weather is dominated by a combination of the Gulf Stream (warm water from Gulf of Mexico) and the Jet Stream (air stream). Jets have only been around for 50 odd years.

The UK is today, about 1C cooler than it was 1,000 years ago.

In geological terms, we are in an Ice Age.

So much for the UK. Lets think bigger – our planet. And where do we get our heat from? It’s not a trick question: The Sun. 

Earth does not orbit the sun in a perfect circle. It’s elliptical. Also, Earth is tilted slightly with the northern hemisphere being closer to the sun. Oh and don’t forget Earth very slightly “wobbles” every now and then, so changing all the angles.

Then there are Sun Spots that flare up and die back down every 10 – 15 ish years or so. These directly affect our weather. In fact there have been hardly any sunspots over the past few years. The basic rule is that the fewer the number of sunspots, the less heat the sun gives out.  It looks like we are heading for the lowest sun spot activity in the last 100 years. Around 1,000 years ago, there was lots of solar activity and this led to a warming period.

The Earth is about 600,000 miles further away from the sun than it was 2,000 years ago. This is because the universe is expanding and we are very, very slowly loosing the suns gravitational pull.

Recent satellite mapping of Greenland suggests that the Arctic may have been periodically ice free some 6,000 – 7,000 years go. And why do you think it’s got that name?  Yup, Norse settlers only 1,000 years ago grazed cattle, grew crops etc for about 300 years. (See above on sun spot activity for cross reference).

And the scientists have an easy job. They can say what they want. “In 50 or 200 years time….dire warnings etc etc”. Yes, you have guessed it; I’ll be dead and so will the scientist who spouted off…….you can fudge, fake or fiddle with whatever statistics you want. My Uncle Phil taught me all I need to know about statistics – if 50% of the population are men, and 50% are women, everyone has one bollock and one tit. Nuff said.

And so onto the Polar Caps. The Arctic’s lowest level of ice is in September. The 2009 ice level is some 500,000 sq km more than in 2008 – which was again, 500,000 sq km more than 2007. Why – well, there have been fewer solar flares on the sun. This fact is straight from the United Nations. Did you catch it on the news? And for those of you who like size comparisons, 500,000 sq km is about the size of France.

Old maps are also interesting. The South Pole is ice covered rock. Satellite imaging mapped out the rock perimeter about 20 odd years ago. And a map from the 16th century matched it. By cricky…….

But lets say there actually IS proper global warming going on. The worst case scenario is that sea levels will rise 4′. Lots of flooding etc etc. So why is it I can climb the peaks in Somerset that are some 200′ – 300′ high – and I can pick up sea shells? Just asking……

And finally, remember that what you hear and see on news programmes is brought to you from the news/entertainment sector. The media are NOT scientists.